讲座题目

The Impact of Industrial Policy on Capacity Overhang: Evidence Based on Machine Learning

主讲人

（单位）

王庆伟教授

(英国卡迪夫商学院)

主持人

（单位）

尹威

（永利平台）

讲座时间

2025年3月11日

上午10点

讲座地点

九龙湖校区经管楼B203

主讲人简介

王庆伟教授是英国卡迪夫商学院金融学讲座教授，会计金融系系主任。他曾担任班戈商学院助理教授，欧洲经济研究中心（德国）研究员, 并参与过德意志银行、德国联邦经济和劳工部以及德国科学基金会的研究项目。

王教授现为卡迪夫金融科技研究中心联合主任，British Accounting Review编委, European Journal of Finance, Finance Research Letters副主编，以及European Journal of Finance “金融科技和金融市场”特刊的客座主编。他曾在许多国际期刊上发表文章，包括Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of Empirical Finance, European Financial Management, and International Journal of Forecasting. 他所领导的卡迪夫金融科技研究组多次获得威尔士金融科技提名奖。他的论文多次在国际会议上获奖。

主要研究方向：金融科技，行为金融，投资决策，可持续金融。

讲座内容

摘要

This paper examines the impact of industrial policy on firm-level capacity overhang, using China’s 2010 strategic emerging industries initiative (SEIP) as a pseudo experiment. We employ machine learning to construct a novel text-based measure of firm overcapacity and identify the treatment and control groups from the policy document and the corporate annual reports. Our difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the SEIP significantly mitigates firm overcapacity, especially for state-owned enterprises, firms with high levels of irreversible investments, those operating in low-marketization regions, and those in competitive industries. The effect, while persistent, diminishes over time. Importantly, we find that corporate innovation, particularly high-quality innovation outputs, serves as a mechanism through which SEIP impacts overhang. Our paper has significant policy implications.